<!-- source: openspec/_root/risk-register.md -->

---
title: Studio Risk Register
status: living
owner: pavel
audience: [pavel, ai, founder, future-operator]
tldr: Long-running RAID-style log of risks not yet closed by a code change. Updated as new risks surface; entries close when mitigation is permanent.
---

# Studio Risk Register

> Living document. Add row when a risk surfaces; close row (move to ## Closed) when mitigation is permanent.
>
> Cross-epic taxonomy and severity definitions: [`_methodology/risk-taxonomy.md`](../_methodology/risk-taxonomy.md).

## Active risks

| ID | Severity | Category | Description | Mitigation status | Owner | Filed | Last review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | HIGH | SDD | Spec-implementation drift between proposal and merged code | Quarterly grep-audit on 5 random archived changes; not automated | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |
| R2 | HIGH | SDD | AI confidently writes wrong concurrent primitive (locks, state.json, process management) | Any PR touching `~/.forge/locks/`, `state.json`, orchestrator code → mandatory manual review; red-line enforced | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |
| R3 | MEDIUM | Quality | Auto-generated tests don't verify what they say (mutation testing gap) | Mutation testing (Stryker) on Forge test suites quarterly; threshold 70% kill rate for critical paths | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |
| R4 | MEDIUM | SDD | Context overflow when task touches 4+ files (hallucination, missed side-effects) | Phase split mandatory in tasks.md if >4 files touched; Forge plan enforces | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |
| R5 | MEDIUM | SDD | SpecFall — review fatigue from oversized design docs | `design.md` hard cap 2000 words; longer = split change proposal | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |
| R6 | MEDIUM | SDD | AI lies to spec to save code (Hillel Wayne) — marks tasks done without real assertions | Verifier flags any tasks.md entry marked done without assertions/tests | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |
| R7 | HIGH | Security | Security policies (RLS, CF secrets, auth flows) generated by AI, not reviewed by human | All Supabase RLS + CF secrets + auth code → manual-review label required; red-line enforced in CI | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |
| R8 | LOW | Cultural | Fingertip rot (DHH) — losing hands-on fluency by delegating everything to Forge | 20% rule: minimum 1 PR per week written by hand, no Forge | pavel | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-12 |

## Assumptions

| ID | Description | Confidence | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | AI accuracy on CRUD/scaffold tasks stays ≥85% through 2027, keeping those categories AUTO-BUILD safe | HIGH | 2026-05-12 |
| A2 | Trust-gradient plateau categories (RLS, concurrent, financial) remain structurally hard through 2027 and will not close with model speed-up alone | HIGH | 2026-05-12 |
| A3 | Linear remains the primary per-epic RAID surface; this risk-register is cross-epic and long-running only (not per-issue) | MEDIUM | 2026-05-12 |

## Closed

| ID | Resolution | Closed date |
|---|---|---|
| — | No closed risks yet | — |
